Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election have soared to 70%, according to traders on the Polymarket prediction platform. This spike follows an incident at a Pennsylvania rally where Trump was injured. Despite the injury, the Secret Service confirmed that Trump is safe. The suspected gunman and a spectator were killed.
Rally Aftermath Boosts Prediction Markets
After the rally, Polymarket saw a significant rise in “Yes” shares for Trump’s victory, increasing from 60 to 70 cents. This means traders believe there’s now a 70% chance that Trump will win the presidency. Polymarket uses smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain, with bets settled in USDC.
Crypto Market Reacts
Trump-themed tokens also surged. The MAGA token jumped 34% to $8.38, and the satirical TREMP token rose 67% to $0.6471. In contrast, the BODEN token, named after President Joe Biden, dropped 15%.
Meme Coins and Political Betting
The incident inspired a wave of new meme coins, such as “Resurrection of Trump” (ROT) and “Hero Trump” (HERO). These tokens, unlike prediction markets, don’t offer payouts based on election outcomes. Instead, they serve as a novel form of political commentary within the crypto space.
Trump’s Crypto Stance
Trump has been vocal about his support for cryptocurrency, pledging to halt the Biden administration’s regulatory actions against the industry. He’s set to speak at a bitcoin conference in Nashville soon, further cementing his pro-crypto stance.
Record-Breaking Trading Volumes
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, has seen record trading volumes in 2024, with $252 million in bets on the presidential winner contract. This reflects growing enthusiasm for political betting as the election approaches. PredictIt, a traditional betting site, showed a similar trend with Trump shares rising from 59 to 66 cents before stabilizing.
Prediction Markets vs. Polls
Prediction markets are often considered more reliable than polls because they involve financial stakes. Participants are incentivized to research thoroughly and bet honestly, offering a potentially more accurate forecast of election outcomes.