Bitcoin breakout

Veteran crypto trader Peter Brandt predicts a potential Bitcoin (BTC) rally to $135,000, echoing the optimism of other market analysts. Despite recent price fluctuations, experts remain bullish about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Peter Brandt’s Bold BTC Prediction

In a recent analysis, Peter Brandt suggested that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by August or September 2025. Brandt’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical performance, particularly how significant gains often occur in the latter half of the halving cycle. He sees the current period as a temporary pause in the larger upward trend.

However, Brandt also issued a cautionary note, warning that if Bitcoin drops below $48,000, it could invalidate his analysis. This price level now serves as a key support zone for Bitcoin’s continued growth.

Broader Market Optimism

Brandt’s forecast aligns with the general optimism within the crypto community. Another prominent analyst, Bob Loukas, shares a similar bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 during this bull cycle. This collective sentiment suggests that many believe Bitcoin is primed for substantial gains.

What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,934, down 1.2% in the last 24 hours. Trading volume has decreased by 16%, though open interest in Bitcoin futures is rising, indicating growing confidence in the market.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also sees potential for a BTC rally, forecasting a rise to $80,000 by the end of the fourth quarter. He attributes this to factors like the upcoming U.S. election and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform well in the last quarter of the year, particularly in October.

Key Takeaways for Traders

As Bitcoin approaches the $48,000 support zone, traders should closely watch for any price movements. A drop below this level could signal further downside, while holding above it might lead to the anticipated rally toward $135,000.

Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto has forecasted a bullish breakout for Bitcoin by late October, driven by a wave 5 impulsive move. Despite some external market factors pressuring Bitcoin, Mikybull remains confident that BTC will rally, potentially reaching new all-time highs.

Bitcoin Price Breakout Expected This Month

According to Mikybull Crypto’s prediction on X, Bitcoin’s price breakout could occur around October 22, following a wave 5 expansion. While the market is currently navigating through a wave 4 correction, Mikybull advises investors to stay calm and avoid panic selling. His analysis suggests Bitcoin may surge to a range of $95,000 to $120,000 during this breakout, potentially marking a new all-time high (ATH).

This optimistic prediction aligns with that of Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. However, Thielen provides a more conservative target, expecting Bitcoin to hit around $75,000 by the end of October, still surpassing its current ATH of $73,000.

Wave 4 Correction Could Bring Lower Prices

Before the anticipated breakout, Bitcoin is undergoing a wave 4 extended correction, which could bring prices down further. Currently, BTC risks falling to $57,000, especially amid global uncertainties like Israel’s imminent conflict. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights $60,365 as a critical support level. If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, it could drop to $57,420, but a rebound to $63,300 is possible if support holds.

Santiment, an on-chain analytics platform, suggests that a further correction may benefit Bitcoin in the long run. They note that market sentiment has cooled since BTC’s local high of $66,400 in late September, which could set the stage for a positive price reversal.

Macro Factors and the Fed’s Role in BTC’s Future

Beyond technical analysis, macroeconomic factors are also key to Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Kobeissi Letter recently highlighted market uncertainties, particularly around inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policies. The hotter-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data suggests that inflation may not be as under control as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested. As the October 4 Jobs report looms, it will provide further insight into the labor market’s health and how the Fed might approach interest rate adjustments at the next FOMC meeting in November.

The US Central Bank has hinted at potential rate cuts before the end of the year. However, these decisions will likely hinge on the upcoming inflation and economic data.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end September with a 9% gain, marking its best performance for the month since 2013. Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, often ending in the red. However, this time, the cryptocurrency has broken the trend, positioning itself for a potential rally as it enters October—a month known for strong performance.

Bitcoin Defies Historical September Slump

Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed September in negative territory eight times, but this year it’s on track to gain at least 9%. This puts Bitcoin on a solid footing for October, which is typically a bullish period for the asset. Historically, when Bitcoin ends September in the green, it tends to close higher in October, November, and December.

In contrast to September’s usual slump, Bitcoin has only finished two Octobers in the red since 2013. During this time, the asset has experienced gains of up to 60% in October, with an average increase of 22%. This seasonal trend, known as seasonality, often drives predictable changes in asset prices throughout the year. For Bitcoin, the end of the year is particularly strong, with December benefiting from the so-called “Santa Claus” rally.

What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Rally?

Bitcoin’s surprising September gain can be attributed to several key factors. Global monetary easing policies, a weakening yen, and rising institutional investments have all contributed to Bitcoin’s recent surge. Additionally, both political parties in the U.S. have shown favorable sentiment toward cryptocurrencies ahead of the November elections, further boosting confidence in the market.

Experts believe this trend will continue into the final quarter of 2024.

With favorable conditions and political support, investors may turn to “buy-the-dip” strategies, pushing Bitcoin higher as the year progresses.