Galaxy CLARITY Act odds fell to 50% as Senate floor time runs out before the August recess. Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the bill becoming law in 2026, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill.
“We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50,” wrote Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn.
Why Galaxy cut its CLARITY Act odds to 50%
Thorn cited several key factors for the downgrade. Specifically, there is no unified Senate Banking-Agriculture text, no firm floor schedule, and a narrowing legislative window before lawmakers leave Washington.
He said the downgrade was about the bill’s timing, not substance. Additionally, congressional competition for floor time “intensified” after US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled the signing of the bipartisan housing bill. Trump said he would not sign it until Congress passed the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill.
This downgrade comes after Galaxy lowered its previous estimate from 75% to 60% on June 9. On May 22, the company had raised its estimate to 75%.
The CLARITY Act is set for a House hearing on July 17. The bill aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. However, it has met with criticism. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, with most Democrats and the banking industry pushing back. They argue that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions.
Congressional calendar squeezes crypto bill
The latest cut reflects mounting concern that even a bill with bipartisan support may not get enough floor time. Specifically, the US Senate has entered a state work period from Monday until July 10. The Senate is also scheduled to begin its traditional August recess on Aug. 8 for five weeks before returning on Sept. 14.
“The runway to pass the bill is quickly declining,” said Thorn. He added that the debate over the SAVE Act “injects another contentious, leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue.”
Furthermore, the Senate is also working on two unfinished developments. First, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), to which the House failed to pass a reauthorization. Second, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027, which is considered “must-pass” legislation and is often the target of political debate.
At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the US Senate to pass the CLARITY Act. They shared this in a letter led by crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto.
Later in June, a group of law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic organizations reached out to White House officials. They expressed concerns that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps regarding illicit activity.
