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Bitcoin (BTC) clawed back to $105,000 on Wednesday after briefly dipping to $103,000, demonstrating resilience amid growing Middle East tensions. All eyes now turn to the Fed’s rate decision, which could determine whether BTC maintains its safe-haven momentum.

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Threat Sparks Oil Shock Fears

Iran's IRGC has imposed controls over the Straits of Hormuz, the world's most important oil and gas transit point.
Passing through the Strait of Hormuz only with Iran's permission.
🔹Khandouzi, former Minister of Economy: Starting tomorrow for 100 days, no oil tanker or LNG… pic.twitter.com/p12wZY2iB4

— tim anderson (@timand2037) June 18, 2025

The rebound came as Iran announced it would require approval for all oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade. Analysts warn:

• Partial blockade could push Brent crude to $100+
• Full closure may spike oil to $120–$130 (per Lipow Oil Associates)
• JPMorgan predicts such disruption could boost US CPI inflation to 5%

OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411K barrels/day, but geopolitical risks may overshadow supply adjustments.

Bitcoin as a Hedge: Will the Rally Hold?

While traditional markets brace for volatility, BTC and gold are attracting safe-haven demand:

• BTC range-bound: Holding $100K–$110K (smallest monthly swing in months)
• Gold volatility rising: Traders rotating into hard assets
• Fed decision key: No rate cut expected, but Powell’s tone could sway markets

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

• Fed hawkishness → Potential short-term pressure
• Oil price surge → Could reinforce BTC’s inflation-hedge narrative
• Escalation in Hormuz → May trigger broader market panic

If the Fed signals delayed rate cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience at $105K will be tested.