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Toncoin has jumped 45% from its monthly low, reaching $3.6240—its highest level since February 24. The surge follows Pavel Durov’s release from France, alongside broader crypto market gains.

However, weak on-chain metrics raise concerns that this rally might not last.

Why Did Toncoin Price Surge?

Pavel Durov’s Legal Troubles

Toncoin’s price boost coincides with news that French authorities returned Pavel Durov’s passport, allowing him to leave the country.

TON Foundation Celebrates Pavel Durov's Passport Return

TON Foundation is delighted to learn that Pavel Durov's passport has been returned to him by French authorities, granting him the freedom to leave the country at his discretion.

This news marks a significant moment of… pic.twitter.com/KkNG7UnJBg

— TON 💎 (@ton_blockchain) March 15, 2025

Durov was arrested in 2024 in France over allegations including facilitating illegal transactions, money laundering, and refusal to cooperate with authorities. His detention sparked strong reactions from the crypto community, fueling speculation around Toncoin.

Toncoin’s On-Chain Weakness

Despite the price spike, Toncoin’s network activity has declined:

• Inflation rose to 0.40% (from 0.33% in October).
• Daily transactions plunged to 2.15M, down from 20M in September 2023.
• Active wallet numbers continue to decline.
• DeFi total value locked (TVL) dropped to $180M, down from $800M.

Additionally, STON.fi, TON’s largest DEX, processed just $7.1M in transactions over 24 hours, showing weak DeFi participation.

One key reason for this decline is the collapse of TON-based meme tokens like Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Tapswap, which wiped out billions in value.

Will Toncoin’s Rally Hold?

Profit-Taking Could Push Toncoin Lower

Toncoin’s price rally may be short-lived, as investors could sell the news of Durov’s release. Similar patterns have played out before—like Cardano’s post-Trump stockpile pump, which ended in double-digit losses days later.

Technical Analysis Signals a Possible Drop

Toncoin’s daily chart shows a bounce from $2.3650 to $3.50, where it hit resistance at the 50-day moving average.

It also encountered resistance at the Murrey Math Lines’ weak stop-and-reverse level, signaling a potential reversal. If selling pressure increases, Toncoin could drop below $3 as the hype fades.

Final Thoughts

While Toncoin’s 45% surge is impressive, weak on-chain fundamentals and potential profit-taking could trigger a pullback. Investors should watch for support at $3.00 and broader market sentiment shifts.

Toncoin (TON) is witnessing a sharp rise in large transaction volumes, even as the crypto market faces a $482 million sell-off. On-chain data reveals a 94% increase in TON transactions valued at over $100,000 within the past 24 hours.

This suggests heightened whale activity, either through accumulation or redistribution.

Crypto Market Faces Extended Selling Pressure

The crypto market continues to experience significant liquidations, with $482 million in crypto positions wiped out over the last day, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin dropped 2.26%, marking its third consecutive daily decline. Other major tokens also struggled, with Dogecoin falling 3.83% and Cardano (ADA) plunging 6.83%.

Toncoin Bucks the Trend

Amid the broader sell-off, Toncoin stands out. Large transaction volumes surged to $8.21 billion (or 1.54 trillion TON), reflecting increased whale activity, according to IntoTheBlock. At the time of writing, TON has shown signs of recovery, up 0.09% in the past 24 hours, though it remains down 7.49% for the week.

Inflation Concerns Weigh on Crypto Markets

The ongoing sell-off aligns with inflation fears sparked by the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes. Fed officials signaled that the pace of interest rate cuts might slow this year due to rising inflation risks.

According to the minutes, “Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” citing stronger-than-expected inflation data and potential policy shifts in trade and immigration.

Investors are closely monitoring job data this week, with the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report on Friday expected to provide critical insights ahead of the Fed’s late-January meeting.

Toncoin (TON), Telegram’s native cryptocurrency, has faced a turbulent month with a 17% decline, recently slipping under $5 before showing signs of a rebound. Despite this recent dip, on-chain data suggests a potential price recovery fueled by changes in holder sentiment.

Holder Confidence Boosts Toncoin Prospects

As TON’s price dipped, a significant shift occurred among short-term Toncoin holders. According to IntoTheBlock data, the token’s “Coins Holding Time” metric has surged by 142% over the past week. This metric gauges how long holders keep a cryptocurrency without selling, often indicating market confidence.

An increase in holding time usually shows a positive outlook, as holders are signaling they see recovery potential. For a stronger rebound, Toncoin needs this holding momentum to sustain, helping prevent a further decline from its recent 17% dip.

Whale Activity and Market Influence

Large Holder Netflow to Exchange Ratio, which tracks whether major holders are sending tokens to exchanges, further supports TON’s recovery case. A declining ratio suggests that these “whales” are holding onto their TON tokens rather than preparing to sell. As long as whales refrain from liquidating assets, TON’s price may benefit from reduced selling pressure.

Toncoin Price Prediction: A Rally Toward $6?

Toncoin’s Money Flow Index (MFI) has also surged, showing increased buying pressure that could push the price above $5.22. Higher MFI values typically indicate that liquidity is flowing into the cryptocurrency, fueling buying activity.

With this buying momentum, technical indicators like the Fibonacci retracement suggest a potential price rise toward $6.15. However, if short-term holders begin selling, this upward trend could stall, possibly sending TON back down to around $4.46.

For now, Toncoin’s on-chain indicators hint at optimism as both short- and long-term holders back the token. If these trends continue, TON may see a full recovery in the coming weeks.

Toncoin, a cryptocurrency associated with Telegram, has recently seen a sharp rise in activity from whale investors. Over recent weeks, large holders have increased their Toncoin netflow, while the number of high-value transactions has also surged.

This heightened engagement among whales, however, has yet to spark any major price movement due to an overall bearish sentiment keeping TON’s momentum in check.

Whales Continue Accumulating Toncoin

Data reveals that Toncoin’s large holders, often called “whales,” have ramped up their activity. In the past week alone, netflow among these major holders—those who own at least 0.1% of the token’s circulating supply—has jumped by 131.63%, signaling a strong accumulation trend.

A surge in netflow typically indicates that large holders are buying more tokens than they are selling, often seen as a bullish signal. Many investors interpret whale buying activity as a sign of expected price growth, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term value.

Additionally, the frequency of high-value Toncoin transactions has significantly increased over the past month. According to IntoTheBlock data, transactions valued between $1 million and $10 million are up by 94%, while those over $10 million have risen by 67% in the last 30 days.

Short-Term Holders Exert Downward Pressure

Despite the positive whale activity, short-term holders (STHs) have continued to sell off their assets quickly, creating downward pressure on Toncoin’s price. STHs—investors who have held TON for less than a month—have reduced their average holding time by 29% over the past month, according to IntoTheBlock data.

This behavior typically reflects a “paper hands” mindset, where investors sell quickly at any sign of a downturn. In the case of Toncoin, the STHs’ rapid selling has contributed to a 10% price drop over the last month.

TON Price Forecast: Will Support Hold?

Toncoin is currently trading at $5.09. If bearish trends persist, TON could drop to its September 6 low of $4.46, marking a potential 13% decline from its current value. However, should demand increase, Toncoin might attempt a breakout above its immediate resistance at $5.26. A successful push past this level could open the way toward the next key resistance at $5.91, potentially setting up a rally toward its two-month high of $6.36.